Despite its global fame and borderline scary technology, OpenAI wasn’t always the multi-billion-dollar giant it is today. During a Y Combinator event, OpenAI CEO Sam Altman candidly described the organization's early challenges: "We had no ideas for products, no revenue, no real idea that we were ever going to have revenue. The idea of ChatGPT was completely in the realm of science fiction." 

This admission highlights the profound skepticism surrounding artificial general intelligence (AGI) in OpenAI's formative years. Altman emphasized that the team spent 2015 brainstorming research papers and experimental projects like video game AI or robotic hands, with ChatGPT's future seeming as improbable as science fiction.

Ultimately, the ambitious vision worked out, with Altman describing their current path as “obvious” in hindsight. But with so much uncertainty, and the company so close to never being founded anyway, Altman explained he’s shocked at where they are today: “To remember what the vibes were like about AI 10 years ago, that was way before the first language models that worked. We were trying to play video games and we had this little robotic hand that could sort of barely do a Rubik's cube,” Altman said. He continued, “It looks so obvious now, despite how improbable it seemed at the time, and how the idea of ChatGPT was completely in the realm of science fiction.”

Altman's Path to Authority

Altman's perspective carries weight due to his unique trajectory in technology leadership. After dropping out of Stanford at 19, he co-founded location-based app Loopt in 2005, demonstrating early entrepreneurial ambition. As Y Combinator's president, he mentored startups like Airbnb and Dropbox, honing his ability to identify transformative ideas despite uncertainty. 

This background positioned him to co-found OpenAI in 2015 alongside Elon Musk and others, despite deep reservations about DeepMind's perceived lead and AGI's feasibility. His transition from startup mentor to AI pioneer reflects a pattern of high-risk, high-reward leadership that lends credibility to his reflections on uncertainty.

From Doubt to Dominance

OpenAI's evolution starkly contrasts with its uncertain origins. Initial projects like the 2016 OpenAI Gym toolkit and 2017 Dota 2 gaming AI demonstrated technical prowess, but lacked clear commercialization paths. 

The breakthrough came with ChatGPT's November 2022 launch, which rapidly attracted 100 million users — faster than TikTok or Instagram. By 2025, OpenAI achieved a $10 billion annual revenue run rate with 500 million weekly users, largely through its ChatGPT subscription tiers and API services. This trajectory from theoretical research to market dominance validates Altman's observation about overcoming early skepticism through persistence.

Timeless Lessons for Innovation

Altman's recollection highlights a fundamental principle of technological disruption: transformative innovations often emerge from environments of extreme uncertainty. His description of "sitting around conference tables trying to come up with paper ideas" mirrors historical AI winters when progress stalled due to computational limits and rigid systems. The contrast between OpenAI's pre-revenue beginnings and its current role in reshaping global industries — from enterprise software to creative workflows — demonstrates how visionary persistence can convert "science fiction" into market reality. 

This narrative transcends AI, offering a blueprint for navigating ambiguity in any emerging field: breakthrough potential often lies beyond immediate commercial viability.